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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to KC 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to KC 37 for 7 yards (28-J.Jobe).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.82 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 43, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model