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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP