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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to PHI 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 39 for 8 yards (83-N.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model