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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to PIT 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to PIT 33 for 15 yards (26-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.41 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP