4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.70 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model