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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:09) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model