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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:39) Direct snap to 88-H.Bryant. 27-K.Hunt left end to CLE 38 for 4 yards (50-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model