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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.66 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model