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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 8-K.Pickett left guard to PIT 30 for 1 yard (44-S.Takitaki). PIT-8-K.Pickett was injured during the play. Cleveland challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 29, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model