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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-47-C.Hughlett.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.57 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model