Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

(:55) 6-P.Harvin punts 20 yards to PIT 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.20 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model