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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 93

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to 50, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -3.89 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth -0.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 93, worth -5.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 51, worth -3.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model