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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (51-Ni.Herbig).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.38 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model