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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.74 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP