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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 19

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 4-J.Moody 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model