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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:20) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model