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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans to SF 18 for 11 yards (20-A.Thomas; 27-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model