Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 85

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(4:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to TB 36, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at SF 13 for 51 yards (53-D.Winters).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.57 EP
54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model