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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to TB 47 for no gain (32-J.Hayes; 31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.67 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model