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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 39 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-11-C.Moore. PENALTY on TEN-40-A.Kendall, Illegal Kick/Kicking Loose Ball, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 1.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.08 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.19 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP