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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 41 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP