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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to TEN 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.37 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model