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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to TEN 8 for 3 yards (58-H.Landry, 56-M.Rice).

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.23 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model