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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to TEN 31 for 6 yards (44-M.Brown, 38-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.77 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model