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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 22-D.Henry up the middle to JAX 49 for 5 yards (44-T.Walker, 23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.15 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model