4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to PHI 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP