Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(4:27) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.60 EP
61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model