Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 82

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(12:45) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to BUF 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 32 for 9 yards (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.69 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model