Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to BUF 21, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 22. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 31 for 9 yards (28-J.Jobe).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model