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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 47
Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0
What Actually Happened
(10:04) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle to PHI 46 for 1 yard (41-N.Morrow).
The Three Options
GO
+1.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.71 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK
-1.32 EP
- 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
