Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Buffalo Bills 24

(7:15) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BUF 17, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 26 for 9 yards (48-P.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.00 EP
57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model