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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(:25) 4-J.Elliott 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model