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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model