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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to TEN 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.35 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model