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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 14 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to CAR 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 10 for 3 yards (14-C.Dowell).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.70 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -2.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model