4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to TEN 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.33 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 40, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model