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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(8:09) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model