Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to TEN 7, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-E.Garror to TEN 30 for 23 yards (80-I.Thomas). PENALTY on TEN-40-A.Kendall, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.59 EP
66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model