4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model