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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to TEN 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-E.Garror pushed ob at TEN 26 for 5 yards (29-D.Jamison).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.06 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model