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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 17 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to CAR 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.94 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP