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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to TEN 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-33-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.26 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model