4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 17 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.86 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model