4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 17-D.Chark to CAR 24 for no gain (37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -1.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model