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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 56

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 4-B.Powell. Penalty on MIN-91-P.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model