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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 16

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.70 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model