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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(12:13) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson pushed ob at CHI 45 for 6 yards (6-K.Gordon).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.16 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model