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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short middle intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards (33-J.Johnson) at CHI 31. 53-T.Edwards to CHI 31 for no gain (17-K.Osborn).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model