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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 12

Chicago Bears 9 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:13) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.83 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model