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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to CHI 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 26 for no gain (11-N.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 27, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model